The Economy: Big Picture

In the last month, we’ve participated in at least six economic forecast presentations or discussions with experts (economic, banking, investment, manufacturing). Although they each had nuances, common themes emerged. Adding our expertise into the mix, we see volatility on the horizon. 

The bottom line is that inflation is likely to continue, interest rates are unlikely to decline near-term without creating additional down-the-line inflation, unemployment will have fits and starts and trend up slightly yet the labor participation rate will remain lower than pre-pandemic. From a jobs standpoint, low skilled jobs are being automated, yet high-skilled jobs are experiencing a severe skills gap. Overall, the economy will be slower than it has been. Last but not least, geopolitical risks are concerning every expert, leaving volatility the name of the game in the foreseeable future.

The Economy & The Data

A summary of findings from recent research on the state of the economy includes the following:

• Stimulus (COVID money flooded the economy): Inflation would need to rise by 30% to absorb the stimulus. So far, inflation has gone up around 20%. Thus, there is around 10% left to absorb to get supply and demand in alignment. If interest rates stay put, the COVID funds will run out in about a year. Otherwise, we will have spurts & starts.
• Government spending: Government spending has continued at historic levels. For example, in 2023, nominal GDP was up $1.5 trillion yet federal debt increased $2.5 trillion, leaving a gap. Debt is increasing at what some see as an alarming rate.
• Inflation rate: It has gone up by 20%, but to absorb the stimulus, there is still 10% to go. It is likely interest rates will remain flat to work through the COVID money. If not, there will be bursts of inflation and recession (volatility). Inflation is likely to stay higher than the goal around 3-3.5%.
• Unemployment rates & labor participation rates: Layoffs surged 136% in January to the second-highest level on record with financial companies, the technology sector, food production companies, and retail with the highest levels (in order of sequence). On the other hand, these findings led the experts to think employers would show the latest hiring at 180,000 workers yet the number came in double that amount (353,000). The unemployment rate stayed about the same at 3.7% with the labor force participation rate at 62.5% (which close to 1% lower than pre-pandemic, 63.4%). There is 1.3 jobs for every person looking for a job. From a client point-of-view, they simply do not have the high-skilled resources required although they are automating low-skilled jobs, and depending on the industry, they have put a pause on hiring.
• Wages: Workers’ wages are improving but they still have not caught up with inflation. In the last three years, real average hourly earnings are still down 2.4%. Thus, people are not feeling better.
• GDP (gross domestic product): Real gross domestic product has largely recovered. It increased 3.3% in the 4th quarter and consumer spending has remained relatively strong. It shifted from goods to services, but has held up overall even with the interest rate hikes thus far.
• Banking: There is concern about the regional banks. They hold most of the commercial real estate loans that will need to be refinanced at higher rates over the next few years. Also, bank’s liquidity requirements are driving concerns with the changing of bonds prices with the quick increase in interest rates.
• Geopolitical risk: Every expert mentioned concern around geopolitical risk. It will lead to inflationary pressures with reshoring, increased prices (for example, the Red Sea rates, diversion costs, and/or expedite costs), impact on energy prices, etc.

The bottom line can be summed up in with the misalignment of demand and supply, the shrinking workforce (with Baby Boomer retirements – by 2030, the youngest of the largest generation in history will be older than 65) combined with the divergent needs for high-skills vs low skills, and the emergence of high geopolitical risk. Thus, volatility and uncertainty will remain.

What Should We Take Away

Smart executives will take bold actions to ensure they can supply their key / ideal customers while pruning low margin/ non-value added customers. They are adding customer/ product profitability, pricing, and costing trends into their SIOP (Sales Inventory Operations Planning) processes to evaluate options, set strategy and make decisions.

They will invest in the best high-skilled resources, supplement with additional options (refer to our article, Where the Talent Has Gone, and create a high-performance culture. Strong leaders will be pivotal to ensuring success. People follow leaders; not companies.

Proactive clients are upgrading ERP systems to ensure the basic processes (blocking and tackling) are in place. Additionally, they are rolling out advanced technologies including artificial intelligence (AI) to automate, digitize and thrive. To read more about these strategies, refer to our article, Automate, Digitize and Thrive in Supply Chain. It will be cornerstone to success in the next decade.

Additionally, smart clients are upgrading business processes, cleaning up their data to better utilize their ERP and peripheral systems, and building flexibility and scalability into their future thinking. The core processes include demand planning, production planning, engineering (for engineer-to-order ETO and configure-to-order CTO companies), production and inventory control, and replenishment/ distribution planning processes. From a data perspective, it is important to review bills of materials, routings, work centers, item masters, customer and supplier masters, and MRP parameters. Proactive clients are ensuring the basics are intact and they are focusing on the roadmap to stay at least a few steps ahead of changing conditions.

If you are interested in reading more on this topic:
Supply Chain Volatility, Risk & Capacity Remain Critical Priorities

The post The Economy, Outlook & Strategies for Success appeared first on LMA-Consulting Group, a supply chain consulting firm.

Disruptions have not stopped. China has been flying balloons over Taiwan. North Korea is threatening South Korea. Russia continues its war with Ukraine. Israel is at war with Hamas which has spread throughout the region, diverting container ships from the Suez Canal in addition to causing a bunch of other negative consequences. The Panama Canal is experiencing a drought and has reduced the number of container ships that can pass. It got so bad that tankers are now avoiding it altogether which has improved pricing to jump to the head of the line for container ships.

And this is before we bring up one of the hottest topics for companies – the skills gap. In essence, although the high level numbers have improved a bit, if you talk with executives, they are challenged to find resources with the appropriate skill sets. Only the companies advancing technology will thrive; however, it requires additional resources with technical skills to pursue these avenues. It is a complete jumble. If a client thinks they have the resources, it turns out they don’t know what the executives expect them to know. Or, as conditions change (new ERP system, new company ownership, changing economic conditions), they fall short. To read more about where the talent has gone and strategies for success, read our blog article.

Why The Issues All Fall to Planning

At multiple clients, the issues are stockpiling in Planning. We consider Planning to include the following areas:

• Demand planning
• Production planning & scheduling
• Replenishment planning (transfers, distribution)
• Materials planning
• Logistics planning (warehouse, transportation, international)

Here are the common causes that are flowing into the Planning Teams. Executives are frustrated and often think the people are the issue when it is the process, the system, the way the organization is set up etc.

• Customer Service: If Customer Service doesn’t proactively manage customer requests, push back when appropriate, handle customer concerns proactively, enter sales orders with the appropriate fields filled in correctly, every issue will fall in Planning’s lap. As Planning plans and schedules, these issues will arise, and they will have to reschedule, expedite, etc. Additionally, as customers change their mind or orders are pushed out or in, if Customer Service isn’t on top of these issues and proactively communicating cross-functionally, the issues flow to Planning’s desk.
• Engineering: In CTO (configure-to-order) and ETO (engineer-to-order) companies, the product is not finalized until it goes through Engineering. If delays or mistakes occur during this process, the issues flow into Planning’s lap. Also, typically if customer approvals are required, the follow up falls to Engineering. If the customer is delayed in providing approval, they typically still want it on the original request date, even if the company has a policy against this occurring. It happens anyway and falls to Planning to resolve.
• Transactions: If the warehouse doesn’t ship, receive, and transfer on a timely and accurate basis, if production doesn’t enter production and issue materials on a timely and accurate basis, if whoever is responsible for scrap and usage adjustments don’t handle them on a timely and accurate basis, if the inventory team doesn’t cycle count, research and resolve root causes on a timely and accurate basis, the issues pile up in Planning. To determine what to plan, inventory must be accurate and performed on a timely basis. Another issue that arises related to transactions are design decisions made on the basis of minimizing transactions in one department that pushes the workload to Planning. Unfortunately, the fact that the workload will end up in Planning isn’t typically known, but it is what happens as someone needs to figure out what to do. If you don’t track at a detailed level yet you need to plan at a detailed level, Planning will have to figure it out manually.
• Suppliers: If suppliers struggle or transportation is delayed (such as the Suez and Panama Canal or via strikes), production must be rescheduled. Again, the issues wind up in Planning to resolve before moving on.
• ERP setup and use challenges: There are millions of setups and processes tied to how an ERP system is rolled out or upgraded. Thus, there are many ways the system can drive incorrect actions. For example, if an item is set up to flow through MRP when it should flow through a min-max planning process or vice-versa, the planner will not receive the appropriate signals. If your branches are not set up properly and in conjunction with your sales forecast, you can send the wrong product to the wrong place at the wrong time. If lead times and safety stocks are not monitored, you can run the plant out of materials or create an overage quite easily. If there are ECNs (engineering change notices) but the ERP system cannot handle them, the Planners might be left updating countless work orders to know what to produce and order.

In the last six months, we’ve seen Planning get bombarded with these types of issues across multiple clients in multiple industries and multiple geographies. It is a common situation.

Path Forward: Reactive to Proactive

Unfortunately, there are no easy solutions. In fact, that is how “we” have got into this situation. Someone has to figure out the path forward. If no one else does it and the ERP system hasn’t been designed to handle it yet, Planning will be your last resort. Thus, ensure you have the appropriate skills on your Planning teams. If they are supposed to catch whatever goes wrong throughout the lifecycle of an order, make sure your planners are ready to do that for an interim period of time. Have you provided ongoing training and education? Have you hired consultants to help your team upgrade the process? Have you invested in additional technology to support your team?

Look around you. Have you had several retirements of long-term employees? Are you sure someone has absorbed ALL of the relevant tasks? How sure are you that the tasks will be automated? How sure are you that they are no longer required if you’ve implemented a process change? How sure are you that your new resources understand the big picture? In several situations, smart executives wondered why these tasks couldn’t be automated. Of course, the answer is that they can be automated, but ONLY with a high-skilled resource(s) with practical experience that can ensure items don’t fall through the cracks. Don’t wait for retirements to occur to go backwards and think about the process. Plan ahead, develop career paths, and transition plans.

Have you implemented a new ERP system or new ERP functionality? Most likely, the ERP team said we will start with base information and add your requests to future phases. How sure are you that those requests will be covered in the interim period? Have you planned to bring on board the appropriate resources for the workload in the interim? Do your employees know what should be done? They might just know what doesn’t seem right, but not know what to do to make it better. Are there a few of those items that should be fought for instead of postponing to a future phase? If you don’t want your business waiting on the Planning Team, re-review if you hear any of these watch-outs. Supplement your team, provide support, and tie rewards with the outcomes you want to achieve for not just the ERP team, but also for those required to ensure success.

Pivot from reactive to proactive is the message. Think forward, invest wisely, provide training and education to your people, communicate clearly, hire leaders with the experience to “jump in” and take on tasks to “see” what their team members are experiencing and help their team climb out of holes. We are in a business environment that is not for the faint of heart. Strong leaders that are willing to take on smart risks, work hard, and pivot with changing conditions will deliver strong results.

SIOP: Reactive to Proactive

Smart leaders are rolling out a SIOP (Sales Inventory Operations Planning) process to proactively plan demand and supply. SIOP will alert you to bottlenecks, issues, the need to pivot etc. Forward-thinking companies are gaining an advantage as they have planned ahead to be agile, pivot quickly, and most importantly, are ahead of the curve in securing capacity, materials, and key resources.

Think ahead and pay close attention to what’s going on in your Planning Team. If the ball is rolling downhill, put stopgaps in place to catch it while proactively addressing the topic.

If you are interested in reading more on this topic:
Master Planning & Production Scheduling Case Study: Gaining Visibility for Results

The post Why Planning Is Impacted As Disruptions Abound appeared first on LMA-Consulting Group, a supply chain consulting firm.

Although production and materials planning can be overlooked in its importance in most companies if going smoothly, it is cornerstone to success. Unfortunately, when not going smoothly, it can bring a company to its knees. For example, production might not know what to run, changeovers can be out of control, customers become unhappy, materials shortages persist, resources are scrambling to catch up with changing conditions, and chaos ensues. Read more about this topic in our article, The Million Dollar Planner.

An Industrial Equipment Manufacturer Case Study

An industrial equipment manufacturer struggled to keep up with month end sales goals when receiving last minute notice from Engineering of final design of the engineer-to-order item (bills of materials) before the item was scheduled to ship to meet customer requested dates. There were multiple stages to the manufacturing process (fabrication, weld, paint, final assembly), and parts had to be shipped offsite for process steps and married up along the way at the “right” time to make the orders come together.

The bottleneck and pacing item was the machine shop, yet visibility was limited to seeing which parts had to complete production at the same time, and the production schedule was completely manual based upon paperwork on hand since there was a lack of visibility in the system. The production supervisor would go through the work order packets, pick out manufacturing differentiators (size, material type, etc.) and group the packets in piles by the optimal run sequencing. For example, you run different sizes on different machines, and you would sequence by material type to be most efficient with changeovers.

Although the machine shop pulled out the stops on a regular basis to meet sales goals, it required constant expediting and coordination of process steps, was sub-optimal based upon the work order packets available at the time, and the process was completely dependent on a person (who also turned into a single point-of-failure). Since there was a lack of visibility, sales order availability frequently moved from month-to-month, creating concerns with predictability. And the machine shop ran less efficiently than it would have if there was visibility to the full scope of work order packets.

As we provided consulting support to this client, we learned about the optimal sequencing triggers (size, material type, etc.) and looked for ways to identify these triggers sooner in the process. Of course, it is never as easy as it appears. Thus, we had to work upfront in the sales quoting process to get a better picture of the demand plan by adding configuration strings (high-level identification of the item) into the process and system early in the process. By adding this information into sales orders, the team had better visibility to what was coming down the pike prior to Engineering’s final design so that we could gain visibility to plan capacity and materials (master scheduling) instead of reacting to sales orders late in their life cycle. We integrated this visibility into a SIOP (Sales Inventory Operations Planning) process to build a monthly cadence and review of critical sales and operational forecasts.

To address the machine shop scheduling, additional triggers had to be identified and incorporated into the data. Sales order statuses were also key to the process as sales orders went through engineering, production engineering, customer approval, material availability, and work order creation before the items were available to be scheduled. We built these statuses into a planning report along with key triggers and dates (incorporated from a production status review process). Once this report was built, a dashboard was developed for improved visibility and ease of use. This powered the production scheduling process and replaced the packets process so that the system automated the 80/20 and focused attention on what was meaningful to optimize the production schedule and ensure the parts married up at the right time.

Master Scheduling & Production Planning Results

As the client gained visibility to required capacity and materials, they were able to start making directionally correct decisions early in the process with the master scheduling process. As capacity bottlenecks arose, they were able to address proactively before “running into a wall”. For example, we gained visibility that paint was a future bottleneck, and so the head of Operations was able to put together the appropriate capital requests, gain approval, and order an additional paint system to support sales growth goals. Additionally, offload capacity was needed to supplement the weld area, and so leadership was able to pursue additional options prior to negatively impacting customers.

From a materials standpoint, Purchasing was able to look into the future and secure materials ordered from the Russia-Ukraine region while they were still available. While every client struggled to maintain service levels during COVID, our client was able to keep one step ahead and sustain higher levels of service for customers.

As the production scheduling process was upgraded, our client gained visibility to the machine shop and could optimize efficiencies and gain capacity. The head of Operations said he was able to double capacity to support sales growth. The production schedule was no longer dependent on a person; it became part of a process. Thus, this key resource could focus attention on further optimizing machine shop performance.

The Bottom Line

Pay attention to your planning processes as they will drive bottom line business results. Changing from reactive to proactive sounds far easier than it is when you get down to the details, but rolling out the appropriate process, data, and ERP system upgrades will propel progress. If you are interested in talking about implementing a master planning and production scheduling process upgrade to improve visibility and results, contact us.

Did you like this article?  Continue reading on this topic:
Production Planning Best Practices to Recover Capacity

The post Master Scheduling & Production Planning Case Study: Gaining Visibility for Results appeared first on LMA-Consulting Group, a supply chain consulting firm.

CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – November 20, 2023 –  In a business landscape characterized by unprecedented business volatility, maintaining stellar customer service emerges as a critical differentiator for companies navigating the ebbs and flows of the current market. Manufacturing and Supply Chain Consultant Lisa Anderson, MBA, CSCP, CLTD and President of LMA Consulting Group Inc., highlights the pivotal role of backlog management in elevating customer service levels, especially significant in a landscape where 88% of buyers, according to Salesforce, deem experience as crucial as the product or service being offered. LMA Consulting Group specializes in supporting manufacturers and distributors in strategic planning and comprehensive supply chain transformation, focusing on enhancing the customer experience and robust business growth.

The decline in customer service, a nearly 20% drop according to Forrester, coupled with diminished customer patience, has spotlighted opportunities for companies to prioritize superior service. This is where proactive backlog management plays a vital role, ensuring high service levels, on-time-in-full (OTIF) delivery, short lead times and preemptive communication.

Backlog management can encompass a myriad of statuses and potential scenarios during order fulfillment, ranging from inventory shortages to waiting on customer approvals, purchase receipts, production engineering, international shipping paperwork or even dealing with credit holds and quality controls. “One of the secrets to success in enhancing service levels lies in implementing a proactive backlog management process. Transitioning from reactive to proactive stances can swiftly elevate customer service levels. We have seen it with a building products manufacturer where service levels increased from 38% to 90% by adopting a forward-looking view and assigning orders with tight timelines to specific people or departments to ensure on time fulfillment. We had an aerospace manufacturer elevate service levels from the low 60%s to the low 90%s by implementing a backlog process that tracked progress through multiple steps of the manufacturing process, adding capacity where needed, and introducing advanced technology solutions. It can be done and it delivers results.” states Ms. Anderson.

For deeper insights into navigating the complex landscape of global supply chains, download Ms. Anderson’s special report The Road Ahead: Business, Supply Chain & The World Order and her eBook SIOP (Sales Inventory Operations Planning): Creating Predictable Revenue and EBITDA Growth.

About LMA Consulting Group – Lisa Anderson, MBA, CSCP, CLTD

Lisa Anderson is the founder and president of LMA Consulting Group, Inc., specializing in manufacturing strategy and end-to-end supply chain transformation.  Ms. Anderson is a recognized Supply Chain thought leader by SelectHub, named a Top 40 B2B Tech Influencer by arketi group, a Top 16 ERP Expert to Follow by Washington-Frank, in the Top 10 Women in Supply Chain by Warner PR, in the top 55 Supply Chain & Logistics Experts by flexport, and a woman leader in Supply Chain by RateLinx.  Her primer, I’ve Been Thinking, provides strategies for creating bold customer promises and profits. An expert on the SIOP process (Sales, Inventory Operations Planning), advancing innovation, and making the supply chain resilient, Ms. Anderson is regularly interviewed and quoted by publications such as Industry Week, Bloomberg, Fox News and The Wall Street Journal. For information, sign up for her Profit Through People® Newsletter or for a copy of her book, visit LMA-ConsultingGroup.com.                 
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Media Contact Kathleen McEntee | Kathleen McEntee & Associates, Ltd. | p. (760) 262 – 4080 | KMcEntee@KMcEnteeAssoc.com

The post Lisa Anderson, Manufacturing & Supply Chain Expert Highlights Proactive Backlog Management as a Keystone for Elevating Customer Service in Manufacturing appeared first on LMA-Consulting Group, a supply chain consulting firm.

Simple metrics drive results. Whether a food and beverage manufacturer or an aerospace distributor, measuring the “right” metrics will focus attention on key issues and drive results. From OTIF (on-time-in-full) to projected past due to reasons for operational inefficiencies, metrics will rally the team on the appropriate topics and highlight the bottleneck issues to ensure success.

Manufacturing & Distribution Metrics

Proactive manufacturers and distributors monitor a core set of metrics. Most clients track revenue month-to-date (MTD) and year-to-date (YTD). Some clients track total backlog while others track booked orders. Many track past due and a customer satisfaction metric such as on-time-delivery (OTD), on-time-in-full (OTIF), or fill rate. Differences start at this point with some clients tracking inventory levels, purchase price variances (PPV), operational efficiencies, waste/ scrap, inventory accuracy levels, a measurement of production output, quality metrics such as parts per million (ppm), holds, warehousing efficiencies, picked, packed and shipped units, freight costs, customer complaints, quotes, and many others. For example, read our article on Walmart and OTIF metrics.

How to Choose Metrics

With so many choices, the question becomes how to choose which metrics to track. If you track too many metrics, your metrics lose meaning and waste precious time and resources. If you track too few metrics, your team might focus on the wrong activities to drive results. If you track the appropriate number of metrics but focus on the wrong metrics, your team will not focus on the “right” activities. So, how do you know how many metrics to measure and which are the “right” ones for your business/ department?

After consulting with manufacturers and distributors for almost twenty years, it has become apparent that common sense will provide the answer. Start with your company objectives. Every client has a sales (revenue) goal. Thus, measuring progress to that goal makes sense to focus attention on potential issues that could negatively impact achieving that goal. Similarly, what other objectives are important to your company? Your metrics must drive the correct behaviors to focus attention on what the executives want to achieve.

If you are in a cash crunch, you should highlight inventory. If you are experiencing negative consequences due to supply chain risk, develop a metric around % of products and /or suppliers within your control or # of products reshored, nearshored, or with backup suppliers. Use uncommon common sense to drive the results desired. Do not overcomplicate it with metrics that might be helpful but will distract from the mission. No clients have excess resources to track metrics that will not add significant value.

Client Examples

In a building products manufacturer, the focus was on pounds produced and sku-level efficiencies. Because every executive from the CEO to the VP of Manufacturing focused on these metrics, the sites found ways to increase the pounds produced regardless of impacts to customer service and other areas of the business. For example, if Operations could run certain products where they gained pounds more quickly, they emphasized those items and deprioritized the ones that required more effort to gain pounds. Unfortunately, the outcome was that the metrics did not focus attention on the appropriate actions to drive results. We refocused attention on schedule adherence, past due/ projected past due, and capacity availability. Executives gained visibility to see how to fit in additional orders to increase revenue without increasing capacity, and they were able to plan ahead to keep service levels high while optimizing manufacturing efficiencies.

In an aerospace manufacturer, the focus was on profitability at each site as the General Managers were incentivized by profitability and revenue. This led to a focus on profit, not inventory levels. Fast-forward a year later, and executives wanted to reduce debt and increase cash flow; however, the site metrics did not encourage sharing of inventory if one site leader would lose and the other won in terms of profitability. The executive team assigned an executive to focus on inventory, provided the teams with resources including our support as inventory and supply chain management consultants, and added an inventory levels metric to the site’s performance and tied it to potential bonuses. In the next several months, we reduced inventory in the core product lines by 30-40% while maintaining / improving service levels, and the inventory team achieved a collective “win”.

The Bottom Line

Metrics will drive performance. Every company has limited resources, and so they need to focus only on what will drive results. Use uncommon common sense, and you will know which metrics to track and how many to track to achieve bottom line business results.

If you are interested in reading more on this topic:
SIOP Metrics: 5 Key Baseline Measurements

The post How Simple Metrics Will Drive Results appeared first on LMA-Consulting Group, a supply chain consulting firm.

In the last month, clients have been proving the critical importance of SIOP (Sales Inventory Operations Planning), also known as S&OP or IBP (Integrated Business Planning) time and again. From process (such as food & beverage), job shop (such as aerospace) and ETO (engineered-to-order such as windows & doors) manufacturers to value-add distributors (such as lawn & garden tools), the SIOP process brings focus to the appropriate areas to align demand with supply and ensure execution success. SIOP spans the end-to-end supply chain and includes resources from Sales & Marketing to Manufacturing, Engineering and Supply Chain to Finance & Accounting.

How Does the SIOP Process Work?

The SIOP process facilitates a monthly cadence that starts with the sales forecast and demand planning process, translates those requirements into a manufacturing and supply chain plans, and highlights critical decisions and actions that need to be taken to support the successful execution of those plans. The process results in a predictable revenue plan, a reliable operations and supply chain plan, and a resulting inventory and profitability forecast. The process enables customer and product profitability reviews, make vs buy decisions, and it facilitates the assessment and actions surrounding supply chain risk. To learn more about how to use the process to achieve profitable growth, read our book, SIOP (Sales Inventory Operations Planning): Creating Predictable Revenue & EBITDA Growth.

SIOP Results

Clients gain substantial results by staying committed to a SIOP process. We frequently hear “we already discuss these topics”. However, the organizations that follow a strict cadence in demand and supply reviews, involve executives in the process and communicate across the organization find opportunities and pivot to what’s coming long before those clients that do not follow a SIOP process. The bottom line is they change from reactive to proactive, and bottom line results follow (profitable growth, accelerated cash flow, high customer service levels, operational efficiencies, etc.).

If you are interested in reading more on this topic:
Predictable Revenue & Resilient Operations for Manufacturing Success

The post The Power of SIOP / S&OP in Fueling Profitable Growth appeared first on LMA-Consulting Group, a supply chain consulting firm.

There are mountains of geopolitical threats going on with significant impact on the supply chain. Most, if not all of these also relate to natural resources. For example:

• China’s threats to Taiwan: China has gone beyond tensions with Taiwan to threatening Taiwan. In the Taiwan Strait, China has normalized incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone. The number, frequency, and danger behind these incursions have increased dramatically, and now China is conducting naval operations just outside Taiwan’s contiguous zone. Since Taiwan produces 90% of the world’s computer chips, you don’t have to think hard as to one of the reasons why. Not only is China #1 in the world in manufacturing including several products related to healthcare, other critical industries and national security, but its control over the South China Seas can impact the supply chain in a far greater way than the pandemic. Listen to a Supply Chain Chats video on this topic.
• Russia and Ukraine: The war has been going on for over a year and there is no end in sight. Russia and Ukraine produce many vital items for the U.S. and the world including oil (which relates to countless critical products), food and fertilizer, and several key commodities such as aluminum, nickel, and copper. These are used in products considered critical and related to national security. Listen to a Supply Chain Chats video on this topic.
• China’s Belt & Road Initiative & shopping spree: China has been investing in infrastructure and going on a shopping spree around the world in strategic places with the goal to “control” the world. For example, they are buying terminals at key Latin America ports, investing in infrastructure in places with natural resources, and buying up U.S. farmland at alarming rates. Clearly, these moves are gloomy for the outlook in supply chain.
• China’s water: China has a horrific scarcity of water in their Northern China Plain. Water is required for manufacturing, electricity, drinking and more. If China doesn’t figure out how to resolve these issues while keeping their manufacturing base intact, they might look to the water nearby in India. What will that mean for the robust manufacturing activity going on in India? Read additional details about the China water situation in our blog post.
• The need for natural resources & rare earths: Given advances in civilizations, industry, and consumer’s expectations, there is a ridiculous need for rare earths and natural resources. For example, in rare earths, we will need in next 27 years more than has been mined in the last 3000 years. Regarding copper, we will need more copper in next 10 years than we would have consumed in history of mankind. Not only are there vast shortages with these figures, but the areas related to geopolitical threats are the ones producing/ mining these items currently.

I discuss these issues at length in a recent webinar for Supply Chain Brief: Brief: Geopolitical & Regulatory Issues: The Path Forward in Supply Chain and Logistics (link direct to webinar below).

Action Plans Related to the Supply Chain

Clearly, hiding your head under a rock will not resolve these issues. Instead, we must immediately take action.

• Assess your risk: Rapidly perform a supply chain assessment. Your assessment should include your manufacturing operations (including offload suppliers, outsourced products, contract manufacturers, and internal sites inclusive of their dependency on their supply chain), suppliers (including your suppliers’ suppliers and further into your extended supply chain, your backup suppliers, etc.), your logistics (transportation, distribution, warehousing, e-commerce) partner network, your customers (and their dependencies), your infrastructure, etc.
• Upgrade your processes/ systems to proactively manage your supply chain: Roll out and/or upgrade your SIOP (Sales Inventory Operations Planning) processes, execution planning systems (demand, production, labor scheduling, distribution, replenishment, transportation), manufacturing operations and logistics capabilities, supply chain visibility and related processes/ systems. You will have to stay on top of issues, potential bottlenecks, and current status of your supply chain and be able to quickly pivot to address changing conditions.
• Supply chain control tower: Hand-in-hand with upgraded processes/ systems, you will need a supply chain control tower to understand your footprint and timely status of materials and products in your end-to-end supply chain.
• Find new sources of supply & source backup suppliers: In addition to the clear need to find / expand new sources of supply, ensure you have backup suppliers. Backup suppliers are always critical. These suppliers should not be “in name only”, meaning you need to continuously purchase a small percentage from them. For example, when VP of Operations & Supply Chain for a mid-market manufacturer, we purchased 20% of our needs for a critical raw material from a backup supplier. When that material went on allocation, we were able to source from the backup supplier and beat out larger companies because we had an ongoing relationship.
• Reshore, nearshore, friendly-shore, and expand manufacturing and mining: No doubt about it. We need to increase manufacturing capabilities near our customers and consumers. Producing to scale will be the key to success – in a site and logistics network we can “control”.
• Proactively manage demand and supply: Prioritize your SIOP (Sales Inventory Operations Planning) / S&OP process to not only align demand with supply and Sales with Operations, but, more importantly, to alert your team to strategic decisions that must be made to serve your customers profitably while maintaining your working capital so that you can invest/ expand and take advantage of upcoming opportunities. Learn more about SIOP in our newly released book, SIOP: Creating Predictable Revenue & EBITDA Growth.

Please contact us with stories, issues, and opportunities on what you’re doing to succeed and how these issues will impact your business. And, please keep us in the loop of your situation and how we can help your organization get in a position to thrive for years to come. Learn more about these topics in our blog and download your complimentary copy of our recently released special report: The Road Ahead: Business, Supply Chain & The World Order.

The post Geopolitics, Natural Resources & Impacts to the Supply Chain appeared first on LMA-Consulting Group, a supply chain consulting firm.

Improved supplier data will give your supply chain the competitive advantage to drive customer loyalty.

Netstock recently collaborated with leading supply chain transformation expert, Lisa Anderson, Founder & President of LMA Consulting, to discuss how businesses can improve supply chain processes and reduce supplier risk to ensure they meet demand.

According to Zippia.com, only 6% of companies report having complete supply chain visibility. With access to improved supplier data, you’ll better understand your supplier network and utilize these insights to ensure you make the best decisions to optimize your planning. Investing in a supply chain planning solution that monitors and measures suppliers’ reliability will increase supplier visibility across your supply chain. 

Use these five steps to manage and identify supplier risk across your supply chain.

Step one: Classify your suppliers. 

To prioritize your efforts, you should know the following information about your suppliers: 

1. Which suppliers deliver on time and in full
2. How many items each supplier provides
3. The average lead time per item
4. What stock items come from which locations

External disruptions also impact suppliers. By increasing the frequency of communication with your suppliers, you’ll know if they are experiencing any challenges in sourcing materials or potential delays in delivering your products. This information will help your business quickly adapt to any increased lead times so you can find an alternative solution.  

Step two: Use a dashboard to help disseminate the data. 

Work with improved real-time supplier data across your supply chain. During these volatile times, having a Sales & Operations Planning solution in place can help manage the data and provide visibility to make the best choices to help your business minimize supplier risk.

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Our most successful clients are constantly thinking about how to thrive in ever-changing, volatile conditions.  They cannot afford to wait to see what is working for their competitors and then go “all in”. Instead, only those who are resilient, innovative, and thinking five steps ahead will thrive in the next decade. 

Thus, they are constantly evaluating the marketplace, their industry, impacts related to the geographies they serve, and changes impacting their supply chain partners. They are looking for what trends might impact their business and if there are opportunities they should pursue. In addition, they are scanning the environment for potential bottlenecks and risks that could negatively impact their plans and assessing strategies to mitigate any serious risks. 

We see our role as staying ahead of the curve so that we can help manufacturers and value-add distributors proactively navigate these volatile times while growing the business, increasing EBITDA, and accelerating cash flow.  Thus, we’ve developed a proprietary process to incorporate the following:

• Industry Best practices:  incorporating the best strategies that drive proven results from industries as diverse as aerospace and defense, building and construction products, food & beverage, and life sciences will allow you to use proven techniques for the 80% while focusing extra attention to shine on the 20% that is your unique differentiator
• The Advantage of Size:  whether incorporating the nimble, entrepreneurial spirit of a small or medium size company, the results focus of a private equity backed company to the rigorous process orientation and cross-training advantage of a large, complex, global organization, your organization will gain.
• Global Trusted Advisor: including viewpoints from expert advisors from diverse disciplines (financial, legal, business), global communities, and trade and professional associations, you’ll gain valued insights instantaneously. 
• Practical Results: And, most importantly, we’ve bounced these against “what works”, is immediately pragmatic and has delivered rapid results.

5P Accelerator(SM) is our proprietary process that fast-tracks growth and profits.

Our 5P Accelerator(SM) focuses on the core factors of success:

• People:  Success begins and ends with people.  Clients that consider people their #1 asset far surpass the results – and more importantly, the engagement of their people than those who see them as costs. 
• Processes: Systems, processes, and technologies enable the standardization and automation of best practices while also accounting for the ability to tailor the process on the fly to support changing customer requirements and market conditions. 
• Plan: There is the “right” mix of planning the work; working the plan. Analysis paralysis and getting lost in plan details will lead to quick failure; however, on the other hand, jumping into action before ensuring you have a directionally correct plan will cause you to sprint on a hamster’s wheel getting nowhere. 
• Priorities: No two products, customers, or tasks are created equal, and if everything is a priority, nothing will be a priority. Since focus drives 80% of success, prioritization becomes essential. Think through benefit, impact, urgency, the rate the issue is improving or worsening, and sequencing when evaluating priorities. Choose no more than 3 critical priorities to focus on simultaneously.
• Profit drivers:  To ensure bottom line results, you’ll need to identify profit drivers. Search for those levers you can pull that will increase pricing power, reduce key cost components, apply technology and automation to increase margins, and that will differentiate you from the competition and accelerate growth. 

As you roll out the 5P’s, success will start to follow; however, to accelerate results and ensure sustainability in your rollout, it will be important to also pump up your wheel by understanding the power of focus, why speed is more important than perfection, and how relationships will drive your end-to-end supply chain success, and you will fast-track growth and profits.

Contact us if you are interested in leveraging 5P Accelerator(SM) at your organization.

Updated as of April 20, 2022

The post 5P Accelerator Process to Fast-Track Growth & Profits During Business Volatility appeared first on LMA-Consulting Group, a supply chain consulting firm.