demand planning Archives - LMA-Consulting Group, a supply chain consulting firm https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/tag/demand-planning/ Sat, 30 Mar 2024 06:37:34 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5 Why Planning Is Impacted As Disruptions Abound https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/why-planning-is-impacted-as-disruptions-abound/ https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/why-planning-is-impacted-as-disruptions-abound/#respond Tue, 23 Jan 2024 21:28:30 +0000 https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/?p=23211 Disruptions have not stopped. China has been flying balloons over Taiwan. North Korea is threatening South Korea. Russia continues its war with Ukraine. Israel is at war with Hamas [...]

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Supply Chain Briefing

Why Planning Is Impacted As Disruptions Abound

Disruptions have not stopped. China has been flying balloons over Taiwan. North Korea is threatening South Korea. Russia continues its war with Ukraine. Israel is at war with Hamas which has spread throughout the region, diverting container ships from the Suez Canal in addition to causing a bunch of other negative consequences. The Panama Canal is experiencing a drought and has reduced the number of container ships that can pass. It got so bad that tankers are now avoiding it altogether which has improved pricing to jump to the head of the line for container ships.

And this is before we bring up one of the hottest topics for companies – the skills gap. In essence, although the high level numbers have improved a bit, if you talk with executives, they are challenged to find resources with the appropriate skill sets. Only the companies advancing technology will thrive; however, it requires additional resources with technical skills to pursue these avenues. It is a complete jumble. If a client thinks they have the resources, it turns out they don’t know what the executives expect them to know. Or, as conditions change (new ERP system, new company ownership, changing economic conditions), they fall short. To read more about where the talent has gone and strategies for success, read our blog article.

Why The Issues All Fall to Planning

At multiple clients, the issues are stockpiling in Planning. We consider Planning to include the following areas:

  • Demand planning
  • Production planning & scheduling
  • Replenishment planning (transfers, distribution)
  • Materials planning
  • Logistics planning (warehouse, transportation, international)

Here are the common causes that are flowing into the Planning Teams. Executives are frustrated and often think the people are the issue when it is the process, the system, the way the organization is set up etc.

  • Customer Service: If Customer Service doesn’t proactively manage customer requests, push back when appropriate, handle customer concerns proactively, enter sales orders with the appropriate fields filled in correctly, every issue will fall in Planning’s lap. As Planning plans and schedules, these issues will arise, and they will have to reschedule, expedite, etc. Additionally, as customers change their mind or orders are pushed out or in, if Customer Service isn’t on top of these issues and proactively communicating cross-functionally, the issues flow to Planning’s desk.
  • Engineering: In CTO (configure-to-order) and ETO (engineer-to-order) companies, the product is not finalized until it goes through Engineering. If delays or mistakes occur during this process, the issues flow into Planning’s lap. Also, typically if customer approvals are required, the follow up falls to Engineering. If the customer is delayed in providing approval, they typically still want it on the original request date, even if the company has a policy against this occurring. It happens anyway and falls to Planning to resolve.
  • Transactions: If the warehouse doesn’t ship, receive, and transfer on a timely and accurate basis, if production doesn’t enter production and issue materials on a timely and accurate basis, if whoever is responsible for scrap and usage adjustments don’t handle them on a timely and accurate basis, if the inventory team doesn’t cycle count, research and resolve root causes on a timely and accurate basis, the issues pile up in Planning. To determine what to plan, inventory must be accurate and performed on a timely basis. Another issue that arises related to transactions are design decisions made on the basis of minimizing transactions in one department that pushes the workload to Planning. Unfortunately, the fact that the workload will end up in Planning isn’t typically known, but it is what happens as someone needs to figure out what to do. If you don’t track at a detailed level yet you need to plan at a detailed level, Planning will have to figure it out manually.
  • Suppliers: If suppliers struggle or transportation is delayed (such as the Suez and Panama Canal or via strikes), production must be rescheduled. Again, the issues wind up in Planning to resolve before moving on.
  • ERP setup and use challenges: There are millions of setups and processes tied to how an ERP system is rolled out or upgraded. Thus, there are many ways the system can drive incorrect actions. For example, if an item is set up to flow through MRP when it should flow through a min-max planning process or vice-versa, the planner will not receive the appropriate signals. If your branches are not set up properly and in conjunction with your sales forecast, you can send the wrong product to the wrong place at the wrong time. If lead times and safety stocks are not monitored, you can run the plant out of materials or create an overage quite easily. If there are ECNs (engineering change notices) but the ERP system cannot handle them, the Planners might be left updating countless work orders to know what to produce and order.

In the last six months, we’ve seen Planning get bombarded with these types of issues across multiple clients in multiple industries and multiple geographies. It is a common situation.

Path Forward: Reactive to Proactive

Unfortunately, there are no easy solutions. In fact, that is how “we” have got into this situation. Someone has to figure out the path forward. If no one else does it and the ERP system hasn’t been designed to handle it yet, Planning will be your last resort. Thus, ensure you have the appropriate skills on your Planning teams. If they are supposed to catch whatever goes wrong throughout the lifecycle of an order, make sure your planners are ready to do that for an interim period of time. Have you provided ongoing training and education? Have you hired consultants to help your team upgrade the process? Have you invested in additional technology to support your team?

Look around you. Have you had several retirements of long-term employees? Are you sure someone has absorbed ALL of the relevant tasks? How sure are you that the tasks will be automated? How sure are you that they are no longer required if you’ve implemented a process change? How sure are you that your new resources understand the big picture? In several situations, smart executives wondered why these tasks couldn’t be automated. Of course, the answer is that they can be automated, but ONLY with a high-skilled resource(s) with practical experience that can ensure items don’t fall through the cracks. Don’t wait for retirements to occur to go backwards and think about the process. Plan ahead, develop career paths, and transition plans.

Have you implemented a new ERP system or new ERP functionality? Most likely, the ERP team said we will start with base information and add your requests to future phases. How sure are you that those requests will be covered in the interim period? Have you planned to bring on board the appropriate resources for the workload in the interim? Do your employees know what should be done? They might just know what doesn’t seem right, but not know what to do to make it better. Are there a few of those items that should be fought for instead of postponing to a future phase? If you don’t want your business waiting on the Planning Team, re-review if you hear any of these watch-outs. Supplement your team, provide support, and tie rewards with the outcomes you want to achieve for not just the ERP team, but also for those required to ensure success.

Pivot from reactive to proactive is the message. Think forward, invest wisely, provide training and education to your people, communicate clearly, hire leaders with the experience to “jump in” and take on tasks to “see” what their team members are experiencing and help their team climb out of holes. We are in a business environment that is not for the faint of heart. Strong leaders that are willing to take on smart risks, work hard, and pivot with changing conditions will deliver strong results.

SIOP: Reactive to Proactive

Smart leaders are rolling out a SIOP (Sales Inventory Operations Planning) process to proactively plan demand and supply. SIOP will alert you to bottlenecks, issues, the need to pivot etc. Forward-thinking companies are gaining an advantage as they have planned ahead to be agile, pivot quickly, and most importantly, are ahead of the curve in securing capacity, materials, and key resources.

Think ahead and pay close attention to what’s going on in your Planning Team. If the ball is rolling downhill, put stopgaps in place to catch it while proactively addressing the topic.

If you are interested in reading more on this topic:
Master Planning & Production Scheduling Case Study: Gaining Visibility for Results

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Lisa Anderson, Manufacturing & Supply Chain Expert Highlights Proactive Backlog Management as a Keystone for Elevating Customer Service in Manufacturing https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/lisa-anderson-manufacturing-supply-chain-expert-highlights-proactive-backlog-management-as-a-keystone-for-elevating-customer-service-in-manufacturing/ https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/lisa-anderson-manufacturing-supply-chain-expert-highlights-proactive-backlog-management-as-a-keystone-for-elevating-customer-service-in-manufacturing/#respond Mon, 20 Nov 2023 15:55:23 +0000 https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/?p=22735 CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – November 20, 2023 –  In a business landscape characterized by unprecedented business volatility, maintaining stellar customer service emerges as a critical differentiator for companies navigating the ebbs and flows of the current market. Manufacturing and Supply Chain Consultant Lisa Anderson, MBA, CSCP, CLTD and President of LMA Consulting Group Inc., highlights the [...]

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CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – November 20, 2023 –  In a business landscape characterized by unprecedented business volatility, maintaining stellar customer service emerges as a critical differentiator for companies navigating the ebbs and flows of the current market. Manufacturing and Supply Chain Consultant Lisa Anderson, MBA, CSCP, CLTD and President of LMA Consulting Group Inc., highlights the pivotal role of backlog management in elevating customer service levels, especially significant in a landscape where 88% of buyers, according to Salesforce, deem experience as crucial as the product or service being offered. LMA Consulting Group specializes in supporting manufacturers and distributors in strategic planning and comprehensive supply chain transformation, focusing on enhancing the customer experience and robust business growth.

The decline in customer service, a nearly 20% drop according to Forrester, coupled with diminished customer patience, has spotlighted opportunities for companies to prioritize superior service. This is where proactive backlog management plays a vital role, ensuring high service levels, on-time-in-full (OTIF) delivery, short lead times and preemptive communication.

Backlog management can encompass a myriad of statuses and potential scenarios during order fulfillment, ranging from inventory shortages to waiting on customer approvals, purchase receipts, production engineering, international shipping paperwork or even dealing with credit holds and quality controls. “One of the secrets to success in enhancing service levels lies in implementing a proactive backlog management process. Transitioning from reactive to proactive stances can swiftly elevate customer service levels. We have seen it with a building products manufacturer where service levels increased from 38% to 90% by adopting a forward-looking view and assigning orders with tight timelines to specific people or departments to ensure on time fulfillment. We had an aerospace manufacturer elevate service levels from the low 60%s to the low 90%s by implementing a backlog process that tracked progress through multiple steps of the manufacturing process, adding capacity where needed, and introducing advanced technology solutions. It can be done and it delivers results.” states Ms. Anderson.

For deeper insights into navigating the complex landscape of global supply chains, download Ms. Anderson’s special report The Road Ahead: Business, Supply Chain & The World Order and her eBook SIOP (Sales Inventory Operations Planning): Creating Predictable Revenue and EBITDA Growth.

About LMA Consulting Group – Lisa Anderson, MBA, CSCP, CLTD

Lisa Anderson is the founder and president of LMA Consulting Group, Inc., specializing in manufacturing strategy and end-to-end supply chain transformation.  Ms. Anderson is a recognized Supply Chain thought leader by SelectHub, named a Top 40 B2B Tech Influencer by arketi group, a Top 16 ERP Expert to Follow by Washington-Frank, in the Top 10 Women in Supply Chain by Warner PR, in the top 55 Supply Chain & Logistics Experts by flexport, and a woman leader in Supply Chain by RateLinx.  Her primer, I’ve Been Thinking, provides strategies for creating bold customer promises and profits. An expert on the SIOP process (Sales, Inventory Operations Planning), advancing innovation, and making the supply chain resilient, Ms. Anderson is regularly interviewed and quoted by publications such as Industry Week, Bloomberg, Fox News and The Wall Street Journal. For information, sign up for her Profit Through People® Newsletter or for a copy of her book, visit LMA-ConsultingGroup.com.                 
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Media Contact Kathleen McEntee | Kathleen McEntee & Associates, Ltd. | p. (760) 262 – 4080 | KMcEntee@KMcEnteeAssoc.com

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Forecasting in Flux: Importance of Supply Chain Flexibility https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/forecasting-in-flux-importance-of-supply-chain-flexibility/ https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/forecasting-in-flux-importance-of-supply-chain-flexibility/#respond Fri, 27 Oct 2023 14:21:49 +0000 https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/?p=22386 Lisa Anderson of LMA Consulting Group was quoted in a Harvard Business Review report about supply chain volatility and uncertainty that are part of the new normal.

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Lisa Anderson was quoted in a Harvard Business Review report about supply chain volatility and uncertainty that are part of the new normal.

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Since early 2020, supply chain disruptions have captured global attention like never before. Newspaper headlines reported dramatic events ranging from surging toilet paper demand to empty store shelves to a ship blocking the Suez Canal. These events only worsened the existing global supply chain crisis. Much of the disruption was pandemic-related, but it hasn’t waned nearly as much as Covid-19 has. Many organizations find that supply chain volatility and uncertainty are part of the new normal.

Consequently, companies find it difficult to accurately predict demand. In
February 2023, Harvard Business Review Analytic Services conducted a
global survey of 459 respondents familiar with their organizations’ supply
chain operations. The survey found that of those whose organizations
execute demand forecasts, 69% say, on average, the accuracy of their demand
forecasts has been below 80% over the past three years. And respondents
are not particularly pleased by this result; only 8% indicate that they are
“very satisfied” with the average level of accuracy of their organization’s
demand forecasts.

Indeed, forecasts are inherently wrong. The questions often are just how
wrong a forecast will be and when that failure will occur.

Extreme Events Changed the Game

It is difficult for organizations to predict demand and plan operations if they can’t be certain about what lies ahead. Lisa Anderson, founder of Claremont, Calif.-based LMA Consulting, says the military term “VUCA”—volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous—best describes global supply chains at present.

“Since the pandemic, new issues have arisen—the Russia-Ukraine war, for example—that are causing issues in many supply chains,” she says. “Oil and natural gas are used in the production of multiple products, and this affects everything from medical devices to fertilizer and food production. When you add the heightened tensions between the U.S. and China, and extreme weather events, the picture is one of continued disruption. We have to stop waiting for it to end. It’s not going to end.”

 

To read the full report, click here.

Originally published on Harvard Business Review, June 15, 2023

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Predictable Revenue & Resilient Operations for Manufacturing Success https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/predictable-revenue-resilient-operations-for-manufacturing-success/ https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/predictable-revenue-resilient-operations-for-manufacturing-success/#respond Tue, 08 Aug 2023 16:18:39 +0000 https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/?p=19782 Manufacturing is in a state of flux. After seven straight months of contraction in manufacturing, it is not surprising manufacturers are thinking about cutting back. On the other hand, in many industries, manufacturers continue to have a robust backlog and are growing faster than their capacity.

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Originally published in Brushware, July-August 2023

Manufacturing is in a state of flux. After seven straight months of contraction in manufacturing, it is not surprising manufacturers are thinking about cutting back. On the other hand, in many industries, manufacturers continue to have a robust backlog and are growing faster than their capacity. Simultaneously, there is significant transition and movement around the globe including dual source suppliers, reshoring, nearshoring, consolidation, and other changes. In this volatile environment, opportunities will abound for those manufacturers focused on creating predictable revenue and resilient operations.

How to create predictable revenue?

Smart manufacturers are getting ahead of customer demand instead of waiting to respond to changing conditions. A few of the best practices in addition to reviewing historical trends and growth patterns include getting on top of sales quotes, getting in sync with key customers, bringing market and industry conditions into the mix, and asking your customer facing team members for input.  proactively and aggressively managing inventory. These factors roll up into the demand planning and sales forecasting process within your SIOP (Sales Inventory Operations Planning), also known as S&OP process. Once you establish a sales forecast, you cannot rest. Depending on your situation, you must review exceptions and changes on a monthly if not weekly cadence.

For example, in working with an aerospace and defense manufacturer, the team was unsure if the demand was predictable enough to order materials and hire resources. Thus, we analyzed data, collaborated with sales and marketing, reviewed customer portals, and evaluated historical trends with contracts. Although the team was uncomfortable, we didn’t enable analysis paralysis. Instead, we took the plunge and piloted forecasts with 70% confidence. The team’s success seemed in direct opposition to their discomfort as their forecast accuracy was one of the highest in almost 20 years of consulting. Most importantly, by creating predictable revenue, Operations had time to prepare. Customer service rates (OTD, on-time-in-full) shot up and costs went down. Margins improved by 5%.  

How to create resilient operations?

Although having a directionally correct demand plan will provide an automatic boost in operational performance with solid leadership, it is no longer enough. To navigate volatility and prepare to take advantage of opportunities, manufacturers must be ready to scale on a dime or pull back without losing momentum. Creating resilient operations is key to success. SIOP remains integral to evaluating alternate strategies to fulfill demand such as make vs buy, dual source suppliers, reallocating production among sites, etc. Adding flexibility into operations is also important by cross-training, utilizing temporary employees, evaluating contract resources, outsourcing support functions such as maintenance, evaluating shift configurations and overtime strategies, and much more. Utilizing technology with automation, robotics, 3D printing/ additive manufacturing, and other strategies can provide quick scalability while maintaining profitability.  

For example, a food and beverage manufacturer invested heavily in cross-training and advanced skills development so that critical resources could respond quickly, and they developed strong relationships with temporary resource partners to be prepared to fill in rapidly when needed or scale back without losing meaningful critical talent. They also focused attention on automation, technology, and labor scheduling to ensure efficiency and scalability, and they were able to take advantage of opportunities to substantially grow the business.

The bottom line

Smart manufacturers will prioritize key customers’ needs and monitor quotes, sales orders, changing market conditions, and forecast closely. From an operations perspective, they will create flexibility, resilience, scalability, and utilize technology to not only save money and create a superior customer experience but also to ensure rapid scalability and flexibility. Leverage SIOP, best practice demand planning processes and uncommon common sense operational programs to ensure manufacturing success.

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Strategies for AI in Manufacturing & Supply Chain https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/chatgpt-ai-good-or-bad/ https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/chatgpt-ai-good-or-bad/#respond Mon, 01 May 2023 21:03:56 +0000 https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/?p=18785 What is All the Hoopla Over ChatGPT? If you haven't been living under a rock, you've heard about ChatGPT and other AI (artificial intelligence) competitors such as Google's Bard and Elon Musk's AI platform. Everyone has gotten into the conversation, from marketing professionals to tech experts to people like Elon Musk are talking about AI [...]

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What is All the Hoopla Over ChatGPT?

If you haven’t been living under a rock, you’ve heard about ChatGPT and other AI (artificial intelligence) competitors such as Google’s Bard and Elon Musk’s AI platform. Everyone has gotten into the conversation, from marketing professionals to tech experts to people like Elon Musk are talking about AI and how it will transform the world…..with a bit of caution throw in for good measure.

Artificial intelligence has been around for quite some time. Who doesn’t own an Alexa? Even my Mom thought Alexa was the best gift she ever received as it is an easy alarm, answers questions, tells her about the weather and much more. With that said, AI has expanded far beyond Alexa in recent years.

What are the Uses of AI in Manufacturing?

There are many uses of AI in manufacturing and supply chain. According to Markets and Markets, artificial intelligence in manufacturing market size is valued at $2.3 Billion in 2022 and anticipated to increase to $16.3 Billion by 2027. That is a MASSIVE increase. Obviously, there is vast potential, and so you better get on board, use common sense, and determine what makes sense to support your long-term objectives. Here are a few of the common uses:

  • Predictive maintenance: AI is used to collect data from machines and predict which will break down and what maintenance should be performed to avoid breakdowns and maximize output.
  • Demand forecasting: AI can be used to predict future trends instead of relying solely on historical patterns. After all, historical patterns are no longer sufficient.
  • Generative design: In engineering intensive environments, AI can be utilized to mimic the design process to quickly produce hundreds of design options for a single product. We work with several clients that could use this base once it produces a solid base.
  • Raw material pricing: Similar to demand forecasting, AI can be used to forecast commodity prices.
  • Machine optimization: Edge analytics uses data sets gathered from machine sensors and can provide insights on how to maximize efficiencies and minimize waste.
  • Quality controls: AI can also monitor quality and quickly identify defects so that quality can be built into the process instead of identified later.
  • Robots: AI robots can help eliminate the monotonous operations, reduce errors and eliminate waste.
  • Supply chain alerts: By monitoring your end-to-end supply chain with AI, you can be alerted to supplier failures, impacts predicted and options evaluated.
  • Autonomous vehicles: AI can be utilized to automate the factory floor, optimize deliveries, and ensure the production line continues to run.
  • And many more…..

AI Uses in Logistics

Similar to manufacturing, there are a mountain of uses in logistics including the following:

  • Autonomous vehicles: Self-driving trucks are being tested and could greatly minimize the issues associated with the shortage of drivers.
  • AI Warehouse Automation: AI can be used to track robots, inventory, identify errors, and monitor warehouse conditions.
  • AI for visual inspection and damage detection: AI is being used commonly to quickly and accurately identify damaged goods on a conveyor belt before they ship to a customer.
  • Predictive maintenance: Similar to manufacturing, predictive maintenance is an improvement over preventative maintenance.
  • Delivery drones: AI can power delivery drones that can streamline and automate the shipping process.
  • Route planning & optimization: Why calculate thousands of potential routes manually? Instead, use AI to run through thousands of route permeations and take into account other factors such as weather, traffic, and construction to optimize your freight.
  • Data-Driven Analytics: Use AI to track and manage the flow of goods throughout the supply chain. Identify potential issues and mitigate them before they occur.
  • And many more…..

Is AI Good or Bad?

Certainly, there are many valuable uses of AI in manufacturing and supply chain. If you want to thrive, you will need to embrace AI. Of course, you cannot blindly follow artificial intelligence. Use a bit of common sense, start with practical applications that will provide immediate value with strong paybacks, and expand where it makes sense. Do not jump in and let AI take over. Instead, think about what you’re doing, test the results, and expand.

There are many positive results from using AI. These include error-free processing, automation of repetitive tasks, 24/7 availability, faster decision-making, predictive capabilities etc.

On the other hand, there are drawbacks as well. One is that humans no longer have to think. That is a BIG concern if you don’t maintain this ability to monitor AI etc. Big unions such as the ports are worried about unemployment. However, there is a lack of talent in today’s marketplace, and it does not appear to be improving with the retirement of the baby boomer generation. In fact, more high-skilled roles will be needed with AI. On the other hand, if you aren’t interested in learning and prefer repetitive tasks, your job is likely to go away. The statistics prove this worry to be false. For example, UPS put automation and AI in place in a large distribution center, and their volume increased, propelling them to hire more people. This is a common story yet there remains a LOT of controversy. Unfortunately, making the U.S. more uncompetitive vs. China’s ports is not the solution as we already are manual vs. using technological advances, automation, and robotics.

Elon Musk and and a group of artificial intelligence experts want to pause the development of AI. They want to make sure the risks are mitigated and that the effects will be positive for advanced uses. For example, who wants their car to drive into a crash without the ability to stop it? This has created a lot of controversy as countries like China will not pause. It is creating quite the controversy. We need smart thinkers using common sense and collaborating to “win this technological war”.

Who certifies the certifiers?

On the other hand, using ChatGPT is largely non-risky – unless you take its conclusions as accurate without verification. It will lead you down the wrong path. There are countless examples of ChatGPT predicting what likely occurred but was not based in reality. The key question is, “Who certifies the certifiers?” as my consulting mentor Alan Weiss points out. The same holds true for AI. Who programs the ‘truth’ into ChatGPT and the like? In fact, ChatGPT is working with 2 year old data, and so as much as it can be valuable in creating a base, do NOT run with AI/ ChatGPT to the bank. Or, you will walk out like a Silicon Valley Bank investor.

Should Manufacturers and Distributors Pursue AI?

Only if you want to stay ahead of changing market conditions in an efficient, cost effective, error-free manner!

Bring on experts and consultants. Provide training and education for your teams. Learn about AI, its uses, how it could add value in your situation, and evaluate potential business partners/ software suppliers. Take the leap with a controlled pilot. And surpass your competition! Only the technologically advanced will thrive in the next decade.

How Does AI Relate to ERP?

Modern ERP and related systems (such as advanced planning and demand planning systems) are incorporating AI. It will no longer be sufficient to struggle with an outdated ERP system. If you do not have a modern ERP system, hire an ERP selection consultant to help you find the ‘right’ system for your critical requirements and take the plunge to upgrade your ERP system.

If you are interested in discussing how to incorporate AI and related technologies into your technology roadmap review our ERP and technology resources and/or contact us to discuss your situation.

Did you like this article?  Continue reading on this topic:
Modernize Your ERP System: A Guide for Selection & Implementation Success

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Right-size Inventory to Thrive During Inflationary & Recessionary Times https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/right-size-inventory-to-thrive-during-inflationary-recessionary-times/ https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/right-size-inventory-to-thrive-during-inflationary-recessionary-times/#respond Wed, 26 Oct 2022 22:33:04 +0000 https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/?p=18027 Inflation, Recession, Both? We are in unique times with inflationary pressures continuing while recessionary trends are emerging as well. In either instance, it is vital to right-size inventory. It will not change anytime soon. With interest rates rising rapidly, it will curb demand while increasing the cost of capital. On the other hand, with supply [...]

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Inflation, Recession, Both?

We are in unique times with inflationary pressures continuing while recessionary trends are emerging as well. In either instance, it is vital to right-size inventory. It will not change anytime soon. With interest rates rising rapidly, it will curb demand while increasing the cost of capital. On the other hand, with supply chain disruptions continuing and world events becoming more concerning, shortages will persist, driving up costs.

What Does It Mean for Inventory?

Whether inflation, recession or both, you’ll want to right-size your inventory. In essence, you will want to have the ‘right’ amount of inventory in the ‘right’ place at the ‘right’ time. This sounds far easier to do than it is in reality. As demand changes and supply shortages persist, what is the ‘right’ amount in the ‘right’ place at the ‘right’ time?

During inflationary periods, you don’t want excess inventory tying up cash unnecessarily, and it is especially problematic since it costs more to produce this inventory. Finance isn’t excited to pay suppliers for the inflated cost of materials and components and pay employees higher salaries to produce upfront, and then have to wait for customer payment. Clearly, in the food and beverage industry, expiration dates make this situation even more concerning.

On the other hand, during recessionary times, you cannot afford to have inventory (and therefore cash) sitting idle. As customers slow down in purchases, what used to be 3 months of inventory could easily turn into 6, 9 or even 12 months of inventory. Of course, that will put you into a cash crunch. Unfortunately, after the 2008-2009 recession, we were called into several clients to right-size inventory in order to resurrect customer service levels because they cut inventory in the ‘wrong’ products (materials, work-in-process or finished goods) in the ‘wrong’ place at the ‘wrong’ time. Clearly, although possibly required to survive, it did NOT set them up to be successful in growing the business because they cut in the ‘wrong’ areas.

What is Right-Size Inventory?

It is a tricky answer. In essence, you want the optimal amount of inventory (not too much but not too little since you don’t want to run out) in the right place (most likely, positioned close to your customer, at your customer’s location or with the appropriate transportation capabilities to arrive quickly at your customer) at the ‘right’ time (when the customer needs it accounting for changing conditions in the marketplace). In order to achieve this objective, you will need the ‘right’ amount of materials, components, and ingredients in the ‘right’ place (manufacturing facility that has capacity to produce near the customers that need the products and is the lowest cost producer) at the ‘right’ time. It is no wonder successful inventory management becomes dicey.

Process to Right-Size Inventory

The best clients with right-sized inventory prioritize the following:

  • SIOP: They utilize a SIOP (Sales, Inventory & Operations Planning) process, also known as S&OP, to steer the ship in terms of the appropriate manufacturing facilities, capacities, supplier partnerships, pricing, make vs buy decisions and the like.
  • Demand Planning: Keeping in alignment with your customers and sales patterns can prove tricky especially in such volatile environments. Since we are entering a world stage of VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity), having a resilient and evolving demand planning process will prove essential.
  • Supply Planning (Production, replenishment, scheduling, materials, inventory, etc.): Keeping your supply planning processes in sync with changing capabilities while navigating supply chain disruptions is quite the task during VUCA. Your process must be flexible, proactive, analytic, predictive and innovative.
  • Tools & Technology: There are limited resources and skills in every client. It will be vital to right-sizing inventory to utilize your ERP system to its fullest potential, evaluate whether advanced demand and supply planning software would add value, analyze trends and create dashboards with a business intelligence (BI) software, evaluate the need for predictive analytics, potentially utilize CRM software, automation and robotics, and more.
  • Talent: All of the above will prove meaningless if you do not have the talent (or are able to source the talent), supplement and support your talent, and, most importantly keep your talent.

Pertinent Examples

We recently worked with a client that suffered in service levels to their customers (both on-time-in-full OTIF and lead times). Thus, growth potential was limited until resolved. In one facility, OTIF levels were in the 40%s and customers were unhappy. In another facility, OTIF levels suffered, but even worse, the lead times were too long and customers were looking to the competition. Not a good position for the market leader!

We worked with a cross-functional team to upgrade their SIOP process and to focus the discussion on meaningful data for decision-making. The meeting went from 3 hours of debate and conversation to an hour of focused review and decision-making. We also worked with the production planner to automate and upgrade the planning and scheduling process at the long lead-time facility. Production stabilized, output records were broken, and customer service improved dramatically. Lastly, we also worked with the replenishment and supply chain teams to calculate safety stocks and service levels, upgrade the process, better utilize the ERP system, and right-size the inventory across the supply chain network. Service rose to the low 90%’s.

Refer to our blog for many articles on planning, inventory and related concepts. Also, read more about these types of strategies in our eBooks, Thriving in 2022: Learning from Supply Chain Chaos and Future-Proofing Manufacturing & Supply Chain Post COVID-19. If you are interested in talking about what it would take to right-size your inventory, contact us.

Did you like this article?  Continue reading on this topic:
Are You Managing Inventory or Is Inventory Managing You?

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Building a Recession-proof Strategy for Your Supply Chain https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/netstock-building-a-recession-proof-strategy-for-your-supply-chain/ https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/netstock-building-a-recession-proof-strategy-for-your-supply-chain/#respond Thu, 14 Jul 2022 19:09:29 +0000 https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/?p=18135 Lisa Anderson, manufacturing and supply chain expert and president of LMA Consulting Group discusses practical insights on how to unlock operating capital and fuel growth.

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Originally published in Netstock, July 2022.

recession proof your business

How much capital do you have invested in the wrong products?

As customer demand slows down and suppliers remain unreliable, making the right decisions on what products to forecast or manufacture today can impact your profit margins and leave you with rising operating costs.

If you’re feeling the squeeze, tune into our panel of supply chain experts, including Lisa Anderson of LMA Consulting and Seth Ellertson of Net at Work, as they share practical insights on how your business can quickly unlock operating capital and fuel growth.

They discussed key tips on how to: 

  • Classify your inventory and reduce inventory holding costs
  • Measure supplier performance and manage lead times
  • Run a healthy S&OP process and align supply with demand
  • Review your tools to minimize risk and improve demand planning 

Click here to watch the webinar replay.

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Navigating Current Global Business Challenges with SIOP & Demand Volatility https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/navigating-current-global-business-challenges-effectively/ https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/navigating-current-global-business-challenges-effectively/#respond Fri, 22 Apr 2022 19:10:48 +0000 https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/?p=16615 Lisa Anderson was interviewed by Lucie Newcomb for the podcast series “Staying Global While Staying Home”. They addressed the topic of the state of the global supply chain and strategies to successfully navigate with Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP / SIOP) with an emphasis on getting a handle on demand volatility. [...]

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Lisa Anderson was interviewed by Lucie Newcomb for the podcast series “Staying Global While Staying Home”. They addressed the topic of the state of the global supply chain and strategies to successfully navigate with Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP / SIOP) with an emphasis on getting a handle on demand volatility. Lisa talked through strategies to collaborate with customers, Sales, and Marketing to gain a directionally correct sales forecast and thrive during the volatile global business environment.

The post Navigating Current Global Business Challenges with SIOP & Demand Volatility appeared first on LMA-Consulting Group, a supply chain consulting firm.

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How SIOP Powers Growth During Supply Chain Disruption https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/lisa-talks-siop-sop-details-with-wbsrocks/ https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/lisa-talks-siop-sop-details-with-wbsrocks/#respond Mon, 14 Feb 2022 21:20:59 +0000 https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/?p=16014 A building products company missed several million dollars in revenue last year because they couldn't meet the demand. Unfortunately, this was a common occurrence. Sales increased dramatically, and they couldn't scale up their manufacturing operations and adapt their purchase requests quickly enough to take advantage of the opportunity.

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Supply Chain Briefing

A building products company missed several million dollars in revenue last year because they couldn’t meet the demand. Unfortunately, this was a common occurrence. Sales increased dramatically, and they couldn’t scale up their manufacturing operations and adapt their purchase requests quickly enough to take advantage of the opportunity. On the other hand, a key client that implemented SIOP/ S&OP (sales, inventory and operations planning) was able to scale up rapidly and achieve on-time delivery in the high 90%’s. They attribute the success to focusing on SIOP. Our most successful clients are rolling out SIOP (S&OP) programs to better forecast demand and figure out the optimal way to successfully – and profitably – deliver that demand. Recently, I was on WBSRocks to discuss the details of SIOP.

What Should We Consider and/or What Impacts Could Arise?

Listen to our conversation on SIOP. We get into the nitty gritty details.

In the show notes, WBSRocks says: Sales and operations planning is a dark art, and most organizations typically have a very ad-hoc process of forecasting due to its nature. But it’s critical to be directionally correct with your plan. Or you might end up missing opportunities or losing customers. Also, planning is more than just creating a model on a spreadsheet. It requires you to come up with estimates and iterate until every external or internal stakeholder agrees with the plan.

In today’s episode, our guest, Lisa Anderson, shares her insights on why it is important to be directionally correct with sales and operations planning. She also discusses similarities in the planning for products such as E. Coli and 737 aircraft and how involved they both could be. Finally, she discusses why you might not get much value in being too detailed at the item level and why you will need to take an iterative approach to come with the forecasts. 

Consider implementing a SIOP/ S&OP (sales, inventory and operations planning) process to get a better handle on your customers’ needs for the next 12-24 months so that you can determine the best way to supply it. SIOP will help determine the best way to provide a superior customer experience (on-time delivery, shorter lead-times, upgraded products and service options, etc.) while supporting growth, profitability and working capital objectives. This will lead back to your manufacturing and supply chain strategy discussions as well as your planning execution discussions.

Please keep us in the loop of your situation and how we can help your organization successfully navigate the current volatility and, more importantly, emerge above and beyond. Learn more about how to use SIOP to achieve success in our book, SIOP (Sales Inventory Operations Planning): Creating Predictable Revenue and EBITDA Growth

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WBSRocks: Business Growth with ERP and Digital Transformation https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/wbsrocks-business-growth-with-erp-and-digital-transformation/ https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/wbsrocks-business-growth-with-erp-and-digital-transformation/#respond Wed, 02 Feb 2022 14:57:40 +0000 https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/?p=16390 Sales and operations planning is a dark art, and most organizations typically have a very ad-hoc process of forecasting due to its nature. But it's critical to be directionally correct with your plan. Or you might end up missing opportunities or losing customers. [...]

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Lisa Anderosn on Elevate IQ

Sales and operations planning is a dark art, and most organizations typically have a very ad-hoc process of forecasting due to its nature. But it’s critical to be directionally correct with your plan. Or you might end up missing opportunities or losing customers. Also, planning is more than just creating a model on a spreadsheet. It requires you to come up with estimates and iterate until every external or internal stakeholder agrees with the plan.

In today’s episode, our guest, Lisa Anderson, shares her insights on why it is important to be directionally correct with sales and operations planning. She also discusses similarities in the planning for products such as E. Coli and 737 aircraft and how involved they both could be. Finally, she discusses why you might not get much value in being too detailed at the item level and why you will need to take an iterative approach to come with the forecasts.

For more information on growth strategies for SMBs using ERP and digital transformation, visit our community at wbs.rocks or elevatiq.com. To ensure that you never miss an episode of the WBS podcast, subscribe on your favorite podcasting platform.

Click here to listen

Originally posted on WBSRocks.

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