Global Trade, Geopolitics, & Import/ Export Archives - LMA-Consulting Group, a supply chain consulting firm https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/logistics-trade/global-geopolitics-trade/ Wed, 03 Apr 2024 05:33:34 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5 PYMNTS: Supply Chain Chaos Threatens East Coast After Baltimore Bridge Collapse https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/pymnts-supply-chain-chaos-threatens-east-coast-after-baltimore-bridge-collapse/ https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/pymnts-supply-chain-chaos-threatens-east-coast-after-baltimore-bridge-collapse/#respond Wed, 03 Apr 2024 05:33:34 +0000 https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/?p=23727 When supply chains run smoothly, the economies they support do too. But when even the smallest disruption occurs, supply chains can quickly turn into the equivalent of a daisy chain — where one event sets off a cascading impact down the entire logistics value chain. Experts fear that this is what could happen up and [...]

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When supply chains run smoothly, the economies they support do too.

But when even the smallest disruption occurs, supply chains can quickly turn into the equivalent of a daisy chain — where one event sets off a cascading impact down the entire logistics value chain.

Experts fear that this is what could happen up and down the East Coast as businesses and shippers try to manage the fallout from the March 26 collapse of Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge as a result of a cargo ship collision.

“The impacts to the local region will be significant for several months or years until the bridge is rebuilt,” Lisa Anderson, founder and president of LMA Consulting Group, told PYMNTS in an interview. “Even once the port is reopened, trucks will continue to be re-routed around Baltimore, adding time and cost to trips from the port and through the Baltimore area.”

The Port of Baltimore itself remains closed to ships moving in or out until further notice, and officials are now faced with the task of removing the thousands of tons of steel and concrete clogging Maryland’s Patapsco River, while at the same time navigating the logistics of rerouting Baltimore-bound ships to other ports up and down the eastern seaboard.

The U.S. Coast Guard opened a temporary alternate channel Monday (April 1) for vessels that are helping with the cleanup effort.

“The most critical timeframe is clearing the bay to reopen the port, which could take weeks,” Anderson said. “This will impact the ninth biggest port in the U.S. and 3,200 sites involved in logistics, distribution and warehousing nearby the port and bridge as well as local businesses.”

 

Read more at PYMNTS site.

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LA Times: How will the Baltimore bridge collapse affect prices and the West Coast https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/la-times-how-will-the-baltimore-bridge-collapse-affect-prices-and-the-west-coast/ https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/la-times-how-will-the-baltimore-bridge-collapse-affect-prices-and-the-west-coast/#respond Mon, 01 Apr 2024 22:38:24 +0000 https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/?p=23709 The closure of the Port of Baltimore this week could have far-reaching implications all the way across the country for the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, according to several experts including Lisa Anderson of LMA Consulting Group.

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The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge and the closure of the Port of Baltimore this week could have far-reaching implications all the way across the country for the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, according to several experts.

The bridge collapsed Tuesday about 1:30 a.m. when the Dali, a 985-foot-long cargo ship en route to Sri Lanka, crashed into one of the bridge’s support pillars shortly after losing power. It sent a majority of the bridge plummeting into the 50-foot-deep Patapsco River below, claiming the lives of at least two construction crew workers on the bridge; four others are missing and presumed dead.

In the short term, the closure of the Baltimore port will increase costs for businesses and consumers on the East Coast, said Lisa Anderson, founder of LMA Consulting Group, which specializes in supply chains and manufacturing. That’s because the container ships on their way to Baltimore will be diverted to nearby New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Virginia ports, and the products they’re carrying will have to change the arrangements previously made to be transported to wherever they need to go, Anderson said.

The closure will also affect warehouses and other logistics services, which will have to decide whether they want to switch to other facilities while officials work on reconstructing the bridge and reopening the port, Anderson said. Trucks will also have to be diverted from the Key bridge, meaning they’ll either have to go around the city or pass through tunnels, which have height, width and hazardous materials restrictions.

Longer term, ports in Los Angeles and Long Beach could see more activity, especially with drought conditions reducing the capacity of the Panama Canal, Anderson said. The shipping route from northeast Asia through the Suez Canal and to the East Coast of the U.S. has also become perilous because of the war in Gaza. The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have been attacking commercial ships going through the Suez Canal, resulting in shipping lines having to divert their vessels around the southern tip of Africa.

What that means is that the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach will see an increase of volume, translating to more activity for trucking companies as well as for warehousing and rail systems, Anderson said.

“That’s a positive, but we also need to make sure it’s not gonna become a new bottleneck,” she said. “These folks are adding time to their orders so they have to find new routes and we wanna make sure we’re prepared to service this additional volume.”

The closure of the Baltimore port could also lead to a “nominal” uptick in costs for the products that typically arrive there, such as cars and light trucks, Anderson said. The costs of diverted transportation will eventually be passed on to customers, but it’s not expected to be significant across the U.S., she said.

Read more at the LA Times

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How Baltimore’s Key Bridge collapse will affect supply chains and the economy https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/how-baltimores-key-bridge-collapse-will-affect-supply-chains-and-the-economy/ https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/how-baltimores-key-bridge-collapse-will-affect-supply-chains-and-the-economy/#respond Sat, 30 Mar 2024 03:35:50 +0000 https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/?p=23699 The Francis Scott Key Bridge now lies partially submerged in the Patapsco River after a catastrophic cargo ship collision this week. Here’s how the Key Bridge collapse may affect the port’s operation.

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The Francis Scott Key Bridge, once the second-longest continuous truss bridge in the U.S., now lies partially submerged in the Patapsco River after a catastrophic cargo ship collision this week.

“Will this Baltimore situation add a bunch of cost to the global supply chain? Well, no,” said Lisa Anderson, president of LMA Consulting Group. But with additional global complications, costs could compound.

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The Francis Scott Key Bridge, once the second-longest continuous truss bridge in the U.S., now lies partially submerged in the Patapsco River after a catastrophic cargo ship collision this week.

Two people were injured, and six others presumed dead. The ship and mangled debris from the bridge have formed a wall in the water, indefinitely blocking access in and out of the Port of Baltimore, the top domestic port for cars and a major hub for other goods, such as forest products, farm equipment and sugar.

Among the questions around what happens now is what the accident means for shipping and the economy.

The port handled a record amount of cargo last year. While President Joe Biden has said he intends for the federal government to rebuild the bridge, and called on Congress to support that effort, the port is directly responsible for about 15,000 jobs and generated $4.7 billion in economic value to the state of Maryland.

The bridge’s collapse stranded at least 10 vessels in the water and ships outside the blockage have had to reroute to other East Coast ports, such as Norfolk and New Jersey. For global shipping, this comes at a time when companies are contending with route disruptions along the Suez and Panama canals.

Here’s how the Key Bridge collapse may affect the port’s operation, the local economy and international supply chains.

  • What role does the Port of Baltimore play?
  • How long will shipping be suspended?
  • Will supply chains be interrupted?
  • What are potential long-term effects?
  • What about local and regional effects?

Read more at PBS News Hour site.

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Lisa Anderson, Supply Chain Expert Discusses Ripple Effects of the Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapse on Global Supply Chains https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/lisa-anderson-supply-chain-expert-discusses-ripple-effects-of-the-francis-scott-key-bridge-collapse-on-global-supply-chains/ https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/lisa-anderson-supply-chain-expert-discusses-ripple-effects-of-the-francis-scott-key-bridge-collapse-on-global-supply-chains/#respond Thu, 28 Mar 2024 14:03:22 +0000 https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/?p=23704 Lisa Anderson emphasizes the profound and wide-ranging impacts on global supply chains. The bridge’s destruction not only disrupts local traffic and logistics but also sends shockwaves through international trade routes, highlighting the critical need for robust supply chain resilience strategies.

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CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – March 28, 2024 –  In the aftermath of the catastrophic collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, Lisa Anderson, MBA, CSCP, CLTD, President of LMA Consulting Group Inc., emphasizes the profound and wide-ranging impacts on global supply chains.  The bridge’s destruction not only disrupts local traffic and logistics but also sends shockwaves through international trade routes, highlighting the critical need for robust supply chain resilience strategies.

The incident, which tragically claimed lives and caused significant infrastructural damage, poses immediate challenges to the Baltimore port – the 5th largest container port on the U.S. East Coast. With the port effectively cut off, the repercussions extend far beyond the immediate delays and diversions. “This disaster underscores the interconnected nature of global supply chains and the cascading effects a single disruption can have,” Ms. Anderson notes. “It’s a stark reminder of why companies must prioritize flexibility, diversification and contingency planning.”

In response to the bridge collapse, Anderson advocates for the adoption of nearshoring, reshoring, friendly shoring and regional manufacturing strategies. These approaches not only mitigate risks but also enhance supply chain responsiveness and sustainability. “The current crisis highlights the vulnerabilities in our supply chains and the pressing need for strategic adjustments,” she states.

Drawing from her extensive experience in supply chain optimization, Anderson calls for a proactive stance with processes like Sales Inventory Operations Planning (SIOP) and the development of multiple backup plans. Her insights are informed by the broader context of recent disruptions, including drought conditions in the Panama Canal and geopolitical tensions affecting the Suez Canal. “In today’s volatile environment, a single backup is insufficient. Businesses must think several steps ahead to navigate and thrive amidst uncertainties,” Anderson asserts.

LMA Consulting remains at the forefront of guiding businesses through supply chain challenges, offering strategic insights and tools such as the Supply Chain Profitability Assessment. This tool encourages organizations to critically evaluate their supply chain operations, fostering agility and strategic foresight.

LMA Consulting specializes in guiding businesses through turbulent times with strategic formulation, comprehensive supply chain transformation and resilience-building solutions. For more insights, download Ms. Anderson’s eBook, SIOP (Sales Inventory Operations Planning): Creating Predictable Revenue and EBITDA Growth.

About LMA Consulting Group – Lisa Anderson, MBA, CSCP, CLTD

Lisa Anderson is the founder and president of LMA Consulting Group, Inc., specializing in manufacturing strategy and end-to-end supply chain transformation.  A recognized supply chain thought leader, Ms. Anderson has been named a Top 40 B2B Tech Influencer by arketi group, a Top 16 ERP Expert to Follow by Washington-Frank, among the Top 10 Women in Supply Chain by Warner PR, in the top 55 Supply Chain & Logistics Experts by flexport, and a woman leader in Supply Chain by RateLinx.  Her primer, “I’ve Been Thinking.” offers strategies for creating bold customer promises and profits. An expert on the SIOP process, advancing innovation and enhancing supply chain resilience, Ms. Anderson is regularly interviewed and quoted by leading publications. For information, sign up for her Profit Through People® Newsletter or for a copy of her book, visit LMA-ConsultingGroup.com.                 

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Media Contact Kathleen McEntee | Kathleen McEntee & Associates, Ltd. | p. (760) 262 – 4080 | KMcEntee@KMcEnteeAssoc.com

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The Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapse & Impacts in the Supply Chain https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/the-francis-scott-key-bridge-collapse-impacts-in-the-supply-chain/ https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/the-francis-scott-key-bridge-collapse-impacts-in-the-supply-chain/#respond Wed, 27 Mar 2024 14:52:41 +0000 https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/?p=23691 Horribly, a container ship collided with the Francis Scott Key Bridge, and much of the bridge collapsed. From a supply chain point of view, it has caused significant near-term impacts and extended disruptions in the region.

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Supply Chain Briefing

The Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapse

The Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapse

Horribly, a container ship collided with the Francis Scott Key Bridge, and much of the bridge collapsed. Cars went into the water, and it has become a deadly disaster. Our thoughts go out to the families impacted.

As we commented in Inc., from a supply chain point of view, it has caused significant near-term impacts and extended disruptions in the region. Transportation bottlenecks immediately emerged. Container ships, trucks, and rail were all impacted.

Port Impacts

It just so happens that the collapse of the bridge cut off the Baltimore port by in essence setting up a wall between the port and the Chesapeake Bay. The bridge’s collapse means that for the foreseeable future, it won’t be feasible to get to the container terminals. The port is likely to remain closed for several months and traffic diverted. This port is the 5th largest container port on the U.S. East Coast and the busiest port in the region for handling roll-on/ roll-off cargo such as cars, light trucks, construction and farm equipment, and more. The port also handled sugar, furniture, home appliances, coal, and other items.

Near-term, container ships will be diverted to nearby ports such as New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Virginia ports. There will be delays, congestion, and diversions. Most likely, these delays will be relatively short-term as they are absorbed to nearby ports; however, it is another disruption in the global supply chain with short-term and long-term implications. As we communicated in a recent article on the impacts of the drought conditions in the Panama Canal and container ship attacks in the Suez Canal (both impacting shipments from Northeast Asia to the East Coast), this is an additional disruption at the East Coast ports. Thus, some shippers are likely to divert to the West Coast ports and rail or truck product to the East Coast.

Regional Logistics Impacts

There are 3,200 sites involved in logistics, distribution and warehousing nearby the port and bridge. Thus, there will be severe near-term disruption in the region. The timing will be heavily dependent on how quickly the debris can be cleared to restore safe passage in the area. Some experts believe this task could be accomplished in the next 1-2 weeks whereas others say it could take months. With that said, with the ports closed and diversions underway, it will take time for the supply chain to level out.

Trucking Impacts

According to the American Trucking Associations (AMA), almost 4,900 trucks travel the bridge each day, with $28 billion in goods crossing each year. There are alternate routes; however, there are issues associated with several of the options. For example, the two tunnel options to cross Baltimore harbor cannot carry hazardous materials, and there are height and width restrictions on the tunnels. Thus, trucks will be diverted on I-695 on the western side of the city. These diversions will cause additional delays, diversions, and cost.

Industry Impacts

The auto industry will experience the most significant impacts because the Baltimore port is the top American port for the import and export of cars. BMW, Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz have facilities close to the port to handle vehicle shipments, and Mazda is had the highest dollar value of imports. The auto industry supply chain will be resilient but it will be another disruption after finally returning inventory to pre-pandemic levels.

The energy industry might experience disruption as well. There could be a disruption in coal supplies, gasoline and ethanol. The oil industry will have to find alternate routes for barge deliveries and/or pursue alternate modes of transportation (trucking). CSX transports imported coal and is communicating expected delays.

SIOP & Backups

It is quite clear that a single backup is no longer sufficient. You must proactively plan for likely risks and think 3 steps ahead of your competition to succeed in today’s global supply chain. SIOP (Sales Inventory Operations Planning) is a process to align demand with supply. It provides visibility across the supply chain so that companies can take proactive actions to mitigate risks, source backup sources of supply, and pivot with changing circumstances. For example, there is significant regional manufacturing, reshoring, and nearshoring occurring. To learn more about these strategies, download our complimentary book, SIOP: Creating Predictable Revenue and EBITDA Growth.

If you are interested in reading more on this topic:
How Do You Rate in Your Supply Chain?

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Inc.: Baltimore’s Business Community Grapples With Impact of Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapse https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/inc-baltimores-business-community-grapples-with-impact-of-francis-scott-key-bridge-collapse/ https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/inc-baltimores-business-community-grapples-with-impact-of-francis-scott-key-bridge-collapse/#respond Tue, 26 Mar 2024 07:48:01 +0000 https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/?p=23684 The Baltimore disaster is expected to further compound the stress already placed on the global freight system. “Container shipping traffic has already been quite disrupted, because of the drought going on in the Panama Canal–ships from there [are] going through the Suez Canal to come to the east coast of the U.S. from Northeast Asia,” says Lisa Anderson.

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The Baltimore disaster is expected to further compound the stress already placed on the global freight system. “Container shipping traffic has already been quite disrupted, because of the drought going on in the Panama Canal–ships from there [are] going through the Suez Canal to come to the east coast of the U.S. from Northeast Asia,” says Lisa Anderson, a supply chain expert and president of California-based LMA Consulting Group.

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Baltimore’s Business Community Grapples With Impact of Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapse

For founders in the city, the loss of a Baltimore landmark is about more than missed income.

Early Tuesday morning, a cargo ship collided with Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, immediately collapsing the structure and sending cars plunging into the Patapsco River.

The incident sparked waves of alarm throughout the country. In speeches, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and President Joe Biden pledged federal assistance in rebuilding efforts. There is no indication that foul play was the cause of the accident, according to the Baltimore’s FBI field office.

Rescue crews continued to search the area for six construction workers who were on the bridge when the Dali, a 948-foot cargo ship bound for Colombo, Sri Lanka, collided with a bridge pylon around 1:30am, according to multiple reports. Two additional construction workers had been rescued from the water, and one was taken to the hospital. No fatalities had been confirmed by Tuesday afternoon, officials said. The Dali, a Singapore-registered vessel, dropped anchor prior to impact after the ship lost propulsion, CNN reported. The Maritime Port Authority of Singapore, which confirmed the loss of propulsion to CNN, says it is in contact with the US Coast Guard and cooperating with investigations.

The National Transportation Safety Administration announced an investigation into the incident on Tuesday afternoon, noting it would probe whether the ship did in fact drop anchor prior to impact.

In addition to the psychological toll inflicted by a disaster, the bridge’s collapse has massive economic ramifications: Submerged in the river, the remnants of the bridge now block access to the Port of Baltimore, the ninth largest port in the United States. The detritus will cause a massive re-routing of all traffic heading to the Port of Baltimore to nearby ports on the northeastern seaboard, Lisa Anderson, a supply chain expert and founder of the LMA consulting group, explains to Inc.

Read the full article at Inc.

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Building Agility and Resilience for Business in 2024 https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/building-agility-and-resilience-for-business-in-2024/ https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/building-agility-and-resilience-for-business-in-2024/#respond Mon, 18 Mar 2024 17:04:23 +0000 https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/?p=23658 In this episode of Interlinks, we delve into the heart of navigating through the unpredictable tides of global events and their profound impact on supply chains, discussing the imperative need for agility and resilience.

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In this episode of Interlinks, we delve into the heart of navigating through the unpredictable tides of global events and their profound impact on supply chains, discussing the imperative need for agility and resilience.

Joined by distinguished supply chain experts Lisa Anderson, David Ogilvie, and Art Koch, I explore the innovative strategies companies are adopting to fortify themselves against the unpredictability of the future, focusing on building these critical qualities into the very fabric of their operations.

Amidst a backdrop of global pandemics, geopolitical tensions, and extreme weather, our conversation illuminates the path for businesses aiming to thrive in a world where the concept of ‘normal’ is constantly redefined.

Play audio.

Originally published on Patrick Daly Interlinks Podcast on 3/12/2024

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Why Manufacturing Matters & Will Thrive in the Next Decade https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/why-manufacturing-matters-will-thrive-in-the-next-decade/ https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/why-manufacturing-matters-will-thrive-in-the-next-decade/#respond Sat, 24 Feb 2024 16:12:51 +0000 https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/?p=23451 Manufacturing promotes safety and security and mitigates risk. Controlling your supply chain and mitigating geopolitical risk can become paramount overnight as geopolitical events occur, natural disasters emerge, and supply chain challenges arise (strikes, disruptions, shortages).

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Supply Chain Briefing

Why Manufacturing Matters & Will Thrive in the Next Decade

Manufacturing Matters – Safety & Security

Manufacturing promotes safety and security and mitigates risk. Controlling your supply chain and mitigating geopolitical risk can become paramount overnight as geopolitical events occur, natural disasters emerge, and supply chain challenges arise (strikes, disruptions, shortages). These types of issues have been increasingly concerning with recent events.

For example, the war in the Middle East has caused disruptions in the Suez Canal. Container ships are being diverted and traveling around the southern tip of Africa, adding 10,000 miles and 7-10 days. This situation delays critical supplies and causes further inflation with increased costs. Additionally, the reason China has been threatening Taiwan is partially to gain control over 90% of the world’s advanced computer chips that go into everything from medical devices to critical infrastructure.

During the pandemic, the U.S. discovered it was dependent on China for critical supplies and everyday necessities. Not only can a worldwide pandemic cause disruptions of these supplies, but country specific policies can dictate whether your supply will be cut off. For example, China rolled out zero COVID policies, directly impacting production and shipping to the U.S. China could prioritize who received limited supplies.

China also wants to control the Red Sea and could decide to cut off supplies produced in other Asian countries in the region. Clearly China thinks manufacturing is essential to national security. For example, their shipbuilding capabilities are over 200 times greater than the U.S. According to the Maritime Executive, China produces more than half of all new tonnage in the world. These types of statistics are gravely concerning and the proactive will build capabilities.

Manufacturing Will Thrive in the Next Decade

As companies realize they must gain control over their supply chain to better support customers, reshoring and regional expansion of manufacturing capabilities will soar. Additionally, the cost has come into alignment for non-commodity products if you evaluate the total cost to produce, ship, store, protect, etc., China won’t have the advantage. Piles of inventory tying up cash unnecessarily are no longer acceptable, especially as customer needs change rapidly, increasing the risk of obsolescence. As interest rates soar, this situation is untenable.

Customers are not willing to accept prolonged periods of delays and stock outs. Thus, they are taking control of their supply chain and focusing on manufacturing capabilities. In addition, companies must prioritize customers and address proactively with strategic pricing and capacity decisions. Thus, smart companies are utilizing a SIOP (Sales Inventory Operations Planning) process to proactively navigate these changing circumstances to maintain high levels of customer service, profitability, and working capital results. SIOP will bring visibility to customer and product profitability, sourcing decisions, make vs buy alternatives, capacity bottlenecks and more.

The proactive will thrive and have more opportunities than ever expected. In fact, they will be in the catbird seat. The rest will continually struggle and weaken. With the significant skills gap (refer to our recent article on where the talent has gone), the proactive executives are hoarding the “best of the best” (employees, trusted advisors, suppliers, etc.). Are you prepared to thrive?

If you are interested in reading more on this topic:
SIOP/ S&OP: Proactive Approach to Maximizing Production Output and Capacity

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This is how companies deal with the Red Sea crisis https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/this-is-how-companies-deal-with-the-red-sea-crisis/ https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/this-is-how-companies-deal-with-the-red-sea-crisis/#respond Thu, 08 Feb 2024 21:55:34 +0000 https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/?p=23317 This is how companies deal with the Red Sea crisis: planes, storage, and closest suppliers.

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Given the succession of unforeseen events in recent years, from the blockage of the Suez Canal by the Ever Given ship to the supply crisis during the pandemic, Lisa Anderson, president of supply chain consultancy LMA Consulting Group, believes that companies must be more proactive and take the initiative instead of simply reacting when something happens and it’s too late. “That means establishing alliances and regional supply sources, better planning inventories and being at the forefront of technological advances.”

Lisa Anderson was quoted in EL PAÍS.

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This is how companies deal with the Red Sea crisis: planes, storage, and closest suppliers

The impact on inflation still seems limited, and major stock outages are not expected, but experts and those affected agree that the key will be the duration of the conflict.

The rain of drones loaded with explosives and Houthi missiles on merchant ships in the Red Sea has turned the once boring and reliable maritime industry into a focus of uncertainty and negative surprises , with unexpected delays due to route changes, cost overruns due to the increase in the cost of freight, and sky-high insurance against the possibility that the cargo never reaches its destination. It is exactly the opposite of what companies intend in this way, which place their orders months in advance so that they can be delivered on time by heavy container ships, slower but cheaper and with more cargo capacity than airplanes.

As the crisis becomes more chronic, the list of those affected continues to grow. The sources consulted point out that despite the magnitude of the detour of the ships, forced to avoid the Suez Canal and make a detour around the Cape of Good Hope that implies at least nine more days of travel, the impact is not yet dramatic or for global economic growth or inflation. “The first estimates suggest for now that the impact of the Red Sea crisis on inflation will be moderate, with an additional rise of a few tenths this year and an impact mainly focused on imported goods,” explains Ángel Talavera, chief economist for Europe at Oxford Economics. The Bank of Spain also lowers the volume of the shock: it believes that fragile global demand and the absence of congestion in the logistics industry will prevent the traffic jams of yesteryear.

The key word, however, is that still : if the US and EU military missions do not achieve their objective of returning security to the area, the consequences could be very costly. At the moment, they already involve uncomfortable surcharges and hasty adaptations. This is the case of automobile companies, with a supply chain based on the just-in-time model , and less accustomed to storage. “Some automotive suppliers installed in Spain are being affected by delays in the components or raw materials necessary to manufacture them, as well as an increase in costs by having to resort to air transport instead,” the employers say Sernauto.

The crisis cabinets have not stopped meeting to minimize the blow. “Being a tremendously flexible and resilient industry, they are already adopting measures such as increasing stocks , readjusting transit times, advancing orders to suppliers and contingency plans,” adds Sernauto. Companies such as Tesla, Volvo and Michelin have already announced temporary stoppages in some of their production plants in Europe due to not having the materials they need on time. This will translate into thousands of fewer cars manufactured, between 5,000 and 7,000 in the case of Tesla and the pause of one of its factories in Germany.

“Non-urgent orders are being postponed, the key variable is the duration,” say sources from the business association CEOE. Talavera agrees. “The precedent of 2021-22 tells us that there are risks of an exponentially higher impact if the crisis is sustained over time and the blockade begins to create disruptions in supply chains. “Europe imports liquefied gas from Qatar, which crosses through the Suez Canal, and a significant part of oil traffic could also be affected.”

More expensive freight and insurance

The large consumer association Aecoc warns that the impact is already significant in sectors such as food, textiles and fashion, hardware and DIY or technological consumer goods, with freight rates that in some cases have become “300%” more expensive. which adds to the higher premiums requested by insurers, who sometimes even refuse to cover the risk of shipments.

Even so, the employers assure that for now there will be no shortage of stocks , that is, that shortages will be avoided. “In recent weeks, companies have focused their efforts on anticipating purchases of raw materials, looking for new suppliers in closer geographic areas and managing their supply through new routes and other means of transportation as an alternative to maritime transportation,” they point out.

From the Spanish Federation of Food and Beverage Industries (FIAB), they detect that warnings are growing for companies that import to increase their safety stock due to expected delays, and they perceive that the merchandise in warehouse is expanding due to the greater transit times. As more time is spent at sea and less available, the difficulties in obtaining space also increase, despite the fact that the number of new boats sailing has grown in recent months. “The direct impact is on the routes with Asia and the Middle East, but there is also an indirect impact on the route between Europe and America due to the shortage of containers and ships,” FIAB sources say.

The perfect storm is completed by the celebration of the Chinese New Year in February, a period that historically involves a slowdown in production, limited transportation operations and supply chain disruptions. And with the problems in another key artery, the Panama Canal, which has limited the passage of ships due to a severe drought. “Container ships are also diverting to the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, and transporting those shipments across the US to the East Coast. Air freight is increasing for urgent shipments and manufacturers are experiencing delays,” explains Lisa Anderson, president of supply chain consultancy LMA Consulting Group.

Given the succession of unforeseen events in recent years, from the blockage of the Suez Canal by the Ever Given ship to the supply crisis during the pandemic, Anderson believes that companies must be more proactive and take the initiative instead of simply reacting when something happens and it’s too late. “That means establishing alliances and regional supply sources, better planning inventories and being at the forefront of technological advances.”

Minor impact to the pandemic

The investment manager Federated Hermes expects that the economic impact of the interruptions will be accentuated in the first two months of the year because cheaper trips contracted before the attacks in Israel are replaced by current ones at higher rates. In context, the cost overruns are even lower than those of the supply crisis closest in time. “The recent increases in container shipping rates are significant, but do not come close to the sharp increases in 2020 and 2021 during the covid-19 pandemic.”

Then, as now, shipping companies were the big beneficiaries , multiplying their income and reaping increases in profits accompanied by strong increases in the stock market. On the losing side of the Red Sea crisis, the insurer Crédito y Caución places European manufacturers in first place. “They import a wide range of intermediate goods from Asia-Pacific, such as electrical equipment, high-tech goods, rubber and plastics, chemicals and machinery. If the crisis continues, waiting times, prices and congestion at ports are likely to increase. This may accelerate the return to a greater willingness to maintain higher inventory levels out of an abundance of caution,” they note.

See the original article here.

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Lisa Anderson, Manufacturing & Supply Chain Expert Addresses Increased Supply Chain Volatility Amidst Red Sea Tensions and Global Disruptions https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/lisa-anderson-manufacturing-supply-chain-expert-addresses-increased-supply-chain-volatility-amidst-red-sea-tensions-and-global-disruptions/ https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/lisa-anderson-manufacturing-supply-chain-expert-addresses-increased-supply-chain-volatility-amidst-red-sea-tensions-and-global-disruptions/#respond Thu, 25 Jan 2024 20:01:07 +0000 https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/?p=23228 The recent turmoil in the Red Sea, triggered by Houthi drone and missile attacks, has significantly amplified risks in global shipping, particularly affecting the Suez Canal and Red Sea routes.

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CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – January 25, 2024 –  Amidst escalating global supply chain challenges, LMA Consulting Group remains at the forefront of offering strategic solutions. Lisa Anderson, MBA, CSCP, CLTD, President of LMA Consulting Group Inc., highlights the critical situation: “The recent turmoil in the Red Sea, triggered by Houthi drone and missile attacks, has significantly amplified risks in global shipping, particularly affecting the Suez Canal and Red Sea routes. These complexities, combined with ongoing disruptions at the Panama Canal, underscore the urgent need for agile and robust supply chain management.”  

The Red Sea, a vital maritime artery, is now a high-risk zone due to geopolitical tensions. Houthi attacks have forced a significant rerouting of shipping lines, with many opting for the longer journey around the southern tip of Africa.  This detour, while safer, adds around ten days and 1900 nautical miles to typical Asia-North Europe services, escalating costs and prolonging delivery times.  

Additionally, the Panama Canal faces challenges from drought-induced vessel limitations, further exacerbating global supply chain disruptions. Its reduced capacity is compelling more ships to navigate through the already stressed Suez Canal.

Ms. Anderson advises, “In this volatile global context, businesses must swiftly adapt and strategically plan ahead. Exploring alternate routes, diversifying supply sources and considering nearshoring or reshoring are imperative to mitigate these emerging risks.“

LMA Consulting Group is at the forefront, aiding clients in traversing these intricate challenges. By implementing a comprehensive Sales Inventory Operations Planning (SIOP) process, businesses can boost agility, secure capacity and maintain a dependable supply chain despite these disruptions. Companies that had preemptively diversified their manufacturing and supply chain networks are now experiencing the benefits of reduced risks and enhanced customer service.

LMA Consulting specializes in guiding businesses through turbulent times with strategic planning, comprehensive supply chain transformation and resilience-building solutions. For more insights, download Ms. Anderson’s eBook SIOP (Sales Inventory Operations Planning): Creating Predictable Revenue and EBITDA Growth.

About LMA Consulting Group – Lisa Anderson, MBA, CSCP, CLTD

Lisa Anderson is the founder and president of LMA Consulting Group, Inc., specializing in manufacturing strategy and end-to-end supply chain transformation.  A recognized supply chain thought leader, Ms. Anderson has been named a Top 40 B2B Tech Influencer by arketi group, a Top 16 ERP Expert to Follow by Washington-Frank, among the Top 10 Women in Supply Chain by Warner PR, in the top 55 Supply Chain & Logistics Experts by flexport, and a woman leader in Supply Chain by RateLinx.  Her primer, “I’ve Been Thinking.” offers strategies for creating bold customer promises and profits. An expert on the SIOP process, advancing innovation and enhancing supply chain resilience, Ms. Anderson is regularly interviewed and quoted by leading publications. For information, sign up for her Profit Through People® Newsletter or for a copy of her book, visit LMA-ConsultingGroup.com.                 

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Media Contact Kathleen McEntee | Kathleen McEntee & Associates, Ltd. | p. (760) 262 – 4080 | KMcEntee@KMcEnteeAssoc.com

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